The watch market has produced some extraordinary headlines in 2026. Phillips, in association with Bacs & Russo, reported more than US$235 million in watch-auction sales across Geneva, Hong Kong and New York during the first half of the year—the strongest season in its history. Its May Geneva auction alone achieved CHF74.8 million and established 43 world records. Christie’s reported a 99% sell-through rate by lot at its May Geneva Rare Watches sale, with the auction finishing 188% above its aggregate low estimate.
Those numbers are impressive. They do not, however, mean that every collectible watch is appreciating.
The more useful conclusion is that demand is concentrating. Buyers are competing intensely for a narrower group of objects that combine rarity, design significance, condition, historical relevance and sustained recognition. Record prices describe the top of the market; they are not a universal price index.
Two markets can exist at the same time
Knight Frank’s 2026 Luxury Investment Index closed 2025 down 0.4%, indicating stabilization after two years of losses rather than a broad speculative surge. Watches were stronger: the WatchCharts Overall Market rose 5.1% over the measured year, while the Patek Philippe market index rose 12.1%. Yet Knight Frank also noted that strength remained concentrated among the most established names and references.
This apparent contradiction is the central story. A market can set auction records while remaining highly selective elsewhere. Exceptional results may reflect competition for a small number of museum-quality, historically important or unusually scarce pieces. They say much less about an ordinary example produced in volume, offered without a compelling story or purchased at an indiscriminate price.
For investors and collectors, category enthusiasm is therefore not a substitute for object-level judgment.
What the strongest results have in common
The best-performing watches rarely rely on a single attribute. Their appeal usually sits at the intersection of several forces.
First, scarcity must be meaningful. A limited production number matters only when demand exists for that maker, reference, configuration or period. Rarity without recognition can remain illiquid.
Second, design and technical importance can create a durable place in watchmaking history. A genuinely influential movement, case architecture or complication has a stronger foundation than a temporary color trend.
Third, cultural relevance can expand the buyer pool. Watches associated with a defining era, an important owner or a turning point in a manufacture’s history can move beyond specialist interest. But association alone does not guarantee value; the market still distinguishes between a documented, consequential connection and a merely decorative story.
Finally, quality matters within the reference. Two watches sharing a model number may differ materially in condition, originality, completeness and market desirability. The headline result for the finest known example cannot simply be transferred to every comparable-looking object.
The secondary market is becoming broader—and younger
Deloitte’s Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025, based on 111 industry executives and 6,500 consumers across major markets, found that pre-owned watches are becoming an important entry point. Forty percent of millennials and Gen Z respondents said they were likely to purchase a pre-owned watch in the following year. Buyers cited affordability and access to unique or discontinued models among the attractions of the segment.
That matters for the long-term structure of the market. A deeper secondary market can improve price discovery, introduce new collectors and create more visible transaction histories. It can also increase dispersion: transparent listings make it easier to see which references attract sustained demand and which depend on optimistic asking prices.
The result is not a market in which everything rises together. It is a market becoming more legible—and therefore more discriminating.
Auction totals are signals, not valuations
Auction reports are valuable because they show real competition and completed transactions. They also require context. A sale total can be lifted by several exceptional lots. Sell-through rates depend on estimate discipline, reserve policy and consignment quality. Results include buyer’s premium, while private transactions may be reported differently or not at all.
A record auction should therefore be read as evidence of demand at a specific place, date and quality level. It should not be used mechanically to value another watch.
This distinction is especially important when watches are considered as real assets. Their value can change because the market’s assessment of the object changes; they do not generate interest or a contractual yield. Liquidity is selective, transaction costs matter and an eventual sale may take time.
The Altherum perspective: selection before exposure
The 2026 results strengthen the case for studying collectible watches, but they also make indiscriminate exposure harder to defend. When the market rewards the strongest pieces and penalizes the rest, the relevant question is not whether watches are “going up.” It is why a particular object might remain desirable across market cycles.
That question begins with the object itself: its maker, reference, era, technical and design significance, scarcity, condition and place within an active collector market. Market evidence must then be compared carefully, distinguishing asking prices from executed transactions and extraordinary records from repeatable comparables.
Altherum approaches collectible watches as selected physical assets. The purpose of structured co-ownership is not to turn every watch into an investment. It is to make carefully selected objects accessible in defined participation sizes while preserving the economic reality of the underlying asset.
The lesson of 2026 is therefore more precise than the headlines. Record prices do not prove that everything is rising. They show where collectors are concentrating conviction.
Sources and methodology
Phillips in Association with Bacs & Russo, first-half 2026 season results and Geneva Watch Auction XXIII results, published May and June 2026. Christie’s, Rare Watches Geneva results, published May 2026. Knight Frank, Luxury Investment Index 2026 results, published 23 April 2026. Deloitte, Swiss Watch Industry Study 2025, published November 2025. Figures refer to the periods and methodologies used by each source and are not directly interchangeable.
This editorial content is for general information only. It is not investment advice, a valuation, an offer or a solicitation. Collectible assets may be illiquid and may lose value.