The $16.7B Secondary Luxury Watch Market
Luxury watches have moved from status symbols to assets that serious collectors treat as a store of value. In 2025, the global secondary market for luxury timepieces reached $16.7 billion in total transaction value, a 36.4% increase year-on-year. Patek Philippe, Rolex and Audemars Piguet dominate investment-grade trading, and their strongest references have commanded premiums well above retail. Unlike equities or bonds, a watch pays no dividend. Its value rests on scarcity, craftsmanship, provenance and the desire of a narrow group of buyers. Supply for the most sought-after references is structurally limited, and demand for them has been historically sustained, though both conditions are market conditions and can evolve. What has barely changed in fifty years is the way these objects are bought, sold and transferred.
Patek Philippe Nautilus 5711: Value vs. Scarcity
No single object captures the tension of this market better than the Patek Philippe Nautilus ref. 5711/1A. Designed by Gérald Genta in 1976 and discontinued in January 2021, the steel sports watch, with its porthole case and grooved blue dial, became the defining collectible of the 2020s. A watch that retailed for $34,900 has traded between $100,000 and $160,000. As of May 2026, WatchCharts places the 5711/1A at $112,500, a year-on-year gain of +29.8%. In November 2024, a special commission ref. 5711/1500A sold at auction for CHF 6.7 million ($7.56 million), the all-time record for the reference. A buyer who acquired one in 2015 for $25,000 and held it for a decade would have seen an increase in excess of +420% on that specific reference. This is a dated historical outcome tied to one exceptional reference and to auction results; it cannot be generalized, and past performance and auction prices do not predict future results. Patek Philippe produces roughly 72,000 watches per year in total, against Rolex’s figure of about one million, and before discontinuation, waiting lists for the 5711 ran 8 to 10 years. Production of the reference has ended, so new supply is not expected; demand has been strong for years, but collector interest, pricing and market depth can change.
The Luxury Watch Ownership & Illiquidity Problem
The collectible case for the Nautilus 5711 is well documented. The ownership structure is where it strains. A collector who holds one sits on a six-figure asset with no partial exit and no transparent settlement layer. Selling means engaging a gray market dealer at a spread of 5 to 15%, submitting to weeks of authentication due diligence, and accepting a binary outcome: full sale or nothing. There is no straightforward mechanism for holding a fractional position, no way to use the asset as collateral without surrendering the physical object, and no secondary market that operates with the speed or transparency of a listed financial instrument. Outside the dominant references the picture is sharper still: the average watch now trades at –31% or worse relative to retail, after 13 consecutive quarters of price declines. The market is bifurcated, opaque and structurally illiquid, even for its best assets.
What Tokenization Changes for Watch Ownership
Tokenization can reduce some of the frictions around luxury watch ownership, within the limits of each structure. When a Nautilus 5711 is placed with a regulated custodian, authenticated, insured and represented as a digital instrument on compliant blockchain infrastructure, an interest in it can be divided and transferred without moving the physical object. Transfer still requires a willing counterparty, eligibility checks, applicable restrictions and available demand: no continuous market, liquidity, exit or price is guaranteed. A digital record can link the authentication file to the instrument and track successive transfers, which shortens documentation work for a buyer; it does not authenticate the watch on its own, and expert verification remains necessary. Settlement can be faster and pricing more transparent, within the limits set by the documentation. Geographic distance and minimum ticket size can be lowered, subject to eligibility and the terms of each structure. This is the type of infrastructure Altherum Tokenization is built around: regulated structures in which custodied, verified physical assets can be recorded and administered transparently. Tokenization records rights; it does not remove the illiquidity, valuation and custody risks of a collectible. This article is editorial analysis: the reference discussed here is not offered, held or available on the Altherum platform.